PERBANDINGAN AKURASI METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA PERAMALAN KEBUTUHAN AYAM HARIAN DI RUMAH MAKAN X MENGGUNAKAN MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR (MAPE)

The availability of chicken raw materials in accordance with operational needs is an important factor in maintaining the smooth operation of Restaurant X. Fluctuations in daily sales can make it difficult to determine the amount of chicken that needs to be prepared, potentially resulting in excess or insufficient raw materials. This study aims to compare the accuracy of the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) methods in forecasting daily chicken requirements at Restaurant X, Banyumas Regency. The data used in this study consist of historical daily sales data for the period from January to December 2025. Forecasting was conducted using the DES and TES methods with the assistance of the Python programming language. The accuracy of both methods was compared using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), where the method with the smallest MAPE value indicates the highest level of accuracy. The forecasting results were then used as a basis for estimating daily chicken requirements. The results showed that the DES method produced a MAPE value of 38.57%, while the TES method produced a MAPE value of 35.03%. Based on these results, the TES method demonstrated better accuracy than the DES method. The forecasting results obtained using the TES method can be used as a basis for estimating daily chicken requirements, thereby helping Restaurant X determine the amount of chicken raw materials that needs to be prepared more effectively and optimally.
Keywords: Forecasting,Double Exponential Smoothing.Triple Exponential Smoothing, MAPE, Chicken Requirements.